Fine Gael on course to retain their two seats in Louth according to latest opinion poll
Fine Gael remain on course to retain their two seats in Louth in the next General Election.
That’s according to one of the country’s leading election analysts, Dr Adrian Kavanagh. The NUI Maynooth lecturer carried out a constituency level analysis based on today’s Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI opinion poll.
The poll showed that Fine Gael are the country’s most popular party on 33% (up 2%), followed by Fianna Fáil on 25% (down 1%) and Sinn Féin on 24% (up 2%). Independents and Others are at 14% (down 2%) while the Labour Party are at 4% (down 1%).
From a Louth prespective, the polls suggest that the current situation of two Fine Gael TDs, two Sinn Féin TDs and a Fianna Fáil TD would remain if there was an election in the morning.
This is good news for Fine Gael, who have been rocked locally in recent weeks by the departure of sitting TD Peter Fitzpatrick from the party.
Despite opening up on what he described as an “unhealthy relationship” with alcohol and admitting to being involved in an altercation, Cllr John McGahon looks set to retain the party’s second seat in the constituency based on the latest poll results.
Based on the opinion poll results, Dr Kavanagh estimates that Sinn Féin are the county’s most popular party with 45%, followed by Fine Gael on 22%, Fianna Fáil on 17%, Labour on 5%, Independents on 5% and Others on 7%.
Using both a d’Hondt method and taking candidate and competition trends unique to different constituencies into account, this would suggest that Sinn Féin and Fine Gael would retain their two seats, with Fianna Fáil taking the final seat.
This would see Ruairí Ó Murchú succeed Gerry Adams and be elected alongside Imelda Munster with the likelihood that Fine Gael’s Fergus O’Dowd and Fianna Fáil’s Declan Breathnach would retain their seat. It would also suggest that McGahon would become the county’s newest TD by retaining a second seat for Fine Gael.
With no date set for an election just yet, there may be many twists and turns ahead both locally and nationally which could sway the outcome.
Check out the full analysis here.