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Second successive opinion poll suggests status quo will remain in Louth at next General Election

Second successive opinion poll suggests status quo will remain in Louth at next General Election
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A second successive opinion poll has suggested that the status quo would remain in Louth if their results were replicated in a General Election.

That’s according to one of the country’s leading election analysts, Dr Adrian Kavanagh. The NUI Maynooth lecturer carried out a constituency level analysis based on today’s Irish Times/IpsosMRBI opinion poll.

The poll showed that Fine Gael are the country’s most popular party on 31% (down 3%), followed by Fianna Fáil on 26% (up 1%) and Sinn Féin on 22% (up 3%).

From a Louth perspective, the polls suggest that the current situation of two Fine Gael TDs, two Sinn Féin TDs and a Fianna Fáil TD would remain if there was an election in the morning. This is a similar finding to a Sunday Business Post/Red C poll which was released at the end of March.

Based on the opinion poll results, Dr Kavanagh estimates that Sinn Féin are the county’s most popular party with 42%, followed by Fine Gael on 21%, Fianna Fáil on 18%, Labour on 6%, independents on 6% and others on 7%.

Using both a d’Hondt method and taking candidate and competition trends unique to different constituencies into account, this would suggest that Sinn Féin and Fine Gael would retain their two seats, with Fianna Fáil taking the final seat.

This would see Ruairí Ó Murchú succeed Gerry Adams and be elected alongside Imelda Munster with the likelihood that Fergus O’Dowd and Peter Fitzpatrick would retain their seats – should they stand again – alongside Fianna Fáil’s Declan Breathnach.

Ruairí Ó Murchú (left) would be the only newly elected TD if the poll is correct as he would be elected alongside his Sinn Féin colleague Imelda Munster (right)

Just a handful of candidates have so far declared their intention to run for the General Election in Louth next time out. Apart from the aforementioned trio of Ó Murchú, Munster and Breathnach, current Labour Senator and former Louth TD Ged Nash is the only candidate to have declared his intention to run in the next election.

Garrett Weldon had previously signalled his intention to represent the People Before Profit Alliance once again but made the decision to step down from the role recently.

You can read the full analysis here.